posted 09.08 a.m. est
Following the Reactive Selling marked on Wednesday, Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked on Thursday. The Value Area was overlapping/higher so although the Sellers have been active they have not yet been Effective.
Dayframe: The minor poc at 1998.50 is now First Level Resistance and following jobs data pre-open ES briefly tested up into that level. Red-at-bottom lows are usually tested within a day (or two) about 80% of the time.
ES First Level Resistance = 1998.50 (35dy)
ES First Level Support = 1949.00 (4mn)
ES Major Support = 1872
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 57% (from 61%), Nasdaq 53% (from 55%), R2000 52% (from 55%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 10.0. There are only four higher ratios in the database, the highest being 10.47 On 07/29. Investors Intelligence Bears% fell to 13.3% this week which is the lowest since 1987.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: last week chart reached its highest level since May last year but is sharply lower this week. The Key S/R area is between 116.17 (1/2R) and 117.15 (maj poc). Pre-open today chart prints just below this price band.
Dollar Index: has today printed its highest level since July last year.
Gold GLD: chart found resistance last week at 124.15, the 30mn poc, and has fallen sharply lower this week to a 50dy low. This chart has been consolidating for a year now in a contracting type of pattern and we are looking for a directional move to begin soon.
Oil USO: Has sold-off since mid June. There is Support a little lower is at 34.17, the 1/2R off 2009 low.
EURUSD: On Thursday broke the Support at 1.3066 (3yr poc) and printed its lowest level since July last year.
