Pre-open Friday 6th August
Another narrow day generating very low volume on Thursday. The minor 10day poc migrated to 1119.
Therfore First Level S/R at 1119 could be intraday support or resistance.
The price action Monday through Thursday looks like a market waiting for something (since the gap higher on Monday the market has consolidated in a higher range) and that was probably the jobs report released pre-open today. ES has weakened since then, currently printing around 1112. The gap may well be filled but I’m not interested in shorts above 1107 – the 1/2R off the April high.
LT Sentiment: The AAII (public) poll reported 30.4% Bulls (down from 40%) and 38.2% Bears (up from 33.3%). This is an increase in public bearishness and as we know it is very rare for a multi-week high to come in with more AAII Bears than Bulls, therefore this data is ST bullish.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio rose slightly on Thursday to 1.86 (from 1.71).
Supporting Charts (technicals based on daily Price Oscillator)
– USDJPY: New multi-year low today.
+ EURUSD: New 3month high today.
+ UDX: dollar index is lower again today. Looks set to test the 80.15 support (1/2R off the March08 low). Chart to watch
– IEF: new high for this chart today.
imo the influence of these charts for equities is too mixed to be useful at the moment.
