Pre-open Friday 7th August
Slightly higher prices did bring a response from the Significant Sellers (red at top). That’s the first time I’ve had to mark their activity for twenty one days. As yet this is not Effective Selling, Thursday’s Value Area was overlapping/lower and narrower and generated less volume. Until we see active Sellers generating a lower, wider Value Area we cannot assume that they are gaining control of the dayframe.
The average (20) weekly HiLo range for ES is 44 with this week’s range so far at just 25.75. It is therefore likely the range will expand and with ES back at the high pre-open I would have to assume range expansion will be higher despite Thursday’s clear Selling imbalance. My “never fade the last imbalance” rule means I cannot initiate new longs but as yet I’m not convinced about the short side. Maybe it’s time for a break.
