Pre-open comment Friday 7th January
Buyers rested as Thursday’s “inside” Value Area overlapped and consolidated Wednesday’s . Following pre-open numbers ES printed as low as 1264.50 but has subsequently rallied back up as high as 1272.50, putting it back in a stronger ST price location above the 5day poc at 1268.50.
First Level S/R = 1268.50 (minor 5day poc)
More important Support = 1254.0 (30day poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 3.37. Heading back towards the recent high at 3.40.
LT Sentiment: AAII (public) poll. Bulls were up at 55.9% but this is lower than the recent peak of 63.3%, w/e 12/24. However the 4wk ma of nett (Bulls minus Bears) powered on to 34.75, a new five year high.
Amgdata: reported large net Equity Fund Inflows of $9.3 Bil. This is the largest weekly inflow for six months and lifts the 4wk flow number to a new two year high.
Supporting Charts
– EURUSD: Currently prints below 1.3087, the 1/2R off the June low. This is a weaker price location.
– UDX: Currently prints above 80.15, the major 1/2R.
+ TLT: Closest reference level is now the 2month poc at 93.04 as explained in webcast. Chart currently in weak location below that level.
imo these charts are mixed but have a negative bias for equities (could change quickly).
