Pre-open comment Friday 8th July
Thursday gapped higher and for the first time exceeded the LT VAH, as did SPY. As noted pre-open Wednesday “VAH measured over various timeframes comes in at 1339 and with the market technically overbought ES may (at least) stall here.” We would need good evidence before assuming control of the dayframe is shifting away from the Buyers – Effective Selling marked below 1327 would we would be a strong indication.
1st Level S/R = 1327 (maj poc) (132.18 SPY)
2nd Level Support = 1310 (1/2R off May high) (131.68 SPY)
LT VAH = 1343 (134.80 SPY)
LT Sentiment: AAII (public) poll Bears% at 24.7 was the lowest in six months. The net (Bulls – Bears) at 17.1 is the highest since mid February.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 2.95. Tuesday ratio at 3.03 was the highest since early June.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: Chart currently printing below the 1.445 Resistance (1/2R off May high) but Momentum (PriceOsc) is up.
? Dollar Index: Chart currently printing above the 74.53 Support (1/2R off May low) but Momentum (PriceOsc) is down.
? TLT: Chart printed a 40day low last week but printed a 7day high today. Held the Support at 92.94 (1/2R off Feb low).
imo it is currently difficult to imply a bias for equities from these charts.
