posted 09.05 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 10th June
SPY closed on Friday within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range which does not indicate a bias on the weekly timeframe. Previous week indicated Sellers Active on this timeframe for the first time this year.
The LT analysis has remained positive (at least for the US) and in the ST the rally at the end of the week put ES back in a stronger price location. The Value Areas on Wednesday and Thursday were printed below the 1626 poc but on Friday the Value Area was printed back above that level which was encouraging. The most recent imbalance is the Buying (green) on Thursday. The 50day poc migrated to 1626.
Dayframe: imo the best gauge of ST strength/weakness would be to watch price relative to the minor 1/2R off May high. Time spent above the following levels would be ST strong price location: ES 1641 (dotted); SPY 164.66; IWM 98.05; QQQ 73.21; DIA 151.72
Breadth: Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for all U.S. Market Charts. U.K. turned neutral (from positive).
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 60%, Nasdaq 66%, R2000 66%, UK 47%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
First Level Resistance = ES 1653 (20day poc)
First Level Support = ES 1626 (50day poc)
Sentiment: my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.28, a sixteen day low. On 22nd May the ratio reached 5.43 and I only have two readings higher than that in the database. These were at the market highs in April and September last year.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: In a weak price location below the major poc at 117.15. Pre-open today the chart has printed its lowest level since April 2012.
Oil USO: On Friday probed the Resistance around 34.20 but has not printed any time above this level yet. Momentum (although negative) has turned up.
Gold GLD: Fell steeply in April to its lowest level for two years and that level was approached again in May. Momentum, although negative, is up.
Silver SLV: Recently printed its lowest level since October 2010.
Dollar Index: Fell sharply last week to Support at the 1/2R off 2009 high at 81.10. Up off that level on Friday but Momentum is negative and down.
EURUSD: Last week printed time above the 24mn poc at 1.3070 and is now attempting to overcame the Resistance at 1.3228, the 1/2R off Feb high. Momentum is up and positive.
