posted 6.55 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Monday 11th April
ChartProfit Market Timing System: U.S. Market Charts are mixed. Nasdaq turned back to negative, Nyse remains neutral and R2000 stayed positive. The U.K. Market Chart remained negative.
Last week I marked three instances of Significant Selling and no Significant Buying. Although the Sellers were active, Value Areas last week were overlapping and therefore the Selling has been Ineffective (so far). Friday’s session low came in at the given Support at 1318.
Surprisingly the high-low range for the week was not extended on Friday and ended the week as the narrowest range in three months. You can see on the chart the last eight days have ranged between 1335 and 1320. Breakout of a tight range like this will often extend quickly. Responsive Sellers have stepped in twice above 1335 so acceptance (time) at/above this level would be ST bullish. Time below the proven support at 1318 would indicate further weakness. Long Trades are still eliminated for me until Significant Buying is marked again.
Enough time was spent at 1328.50 on Friday to lift the 5month poc to this level. This is not always a bullish development but if ES can print some time above this important level it will be in a strong price location and I would expect a new high.
First Level S/R = 1328.50 (5month poc)
First Level Support = 1318
Second Level Support = 1289.50 1/2R off February high
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up to 3.99. That’s the highest I have in my database. This indicator says the Public are very bullish and this is usually a warning.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Higher today. Now at highest level since January 2010.
+ UDX: Last week down to lowest level since December 2009.
+ TLT: Chart has broken below the 1/2R off the February low at 91.54 which puts it in a weak position.
imo these charts have a positive ST bias for equities.
