posted 09.15 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 11th February
Last week I marked Significant Buying once and no Significant Selling. ES found Support at 1495 First Level Support on Thursday and closed the week above the high of Mon-Wed hi-lo range which is positive weekly structure once again.
A number of Sentiment indicators are at, or close to a Bullish extreme which is a concern and the market is overbought. But both the LT and ST (shown here) analysis remain positive. First sign of weakness would be “Effective” Selling marked and that hasn’t happened since mid December.
Chartprofit Market Timing System stayed positive for all Major Market Charts. %Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 85% and Nasdaq 77%. UK 86%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.29. It reached 4.81 on 01/30 which was the highest reading since 28th September. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? Bonds TLT: has spent the majority of the last eight trading days printing time below 117.15, the major poc, which is weak price location. Pre-open today it prints very close to that level.
? Oil USO: has worked off some of its technical “overboughtness” and is currently holding above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Momentum indicator turning back up would be a positive for this chart if it holds that level.
– Gold GLD; Silver SLV: Pre-open today Gold GLD has broken below the 161.0 major poc. This is weak price location. Silver SLV is a Key Chart. It rallied to 31.25, its major poc Resistance, twice in January and looks to have failed at that level. This chart, like GLD, is in a weak price location.
– Dollar Index: printed a 21dy high today above 80.15, the major level. Price printing time above that level would put the chart back in a strong price location. Momentum is up.
? EURUSD: printed a ten day low on Friday and currently prints just below 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low).
All these charts print close to their major levels so things can change quickly in terms of price location strength/weakness. Watching TLT relative to 117.15 and Dollar Index relative to 80.15.
