posted 9.20 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Monday 11th July
The Chartprofit Market Timing System remained neutral for Nyse and Nasdaq Market Charts.
At the start of last week I wrote ref the 1327 poc “Whether ES can hold above this level is the most important factor to monitor this coming week” .. and that remains the same this week. All daily VAs last week were printed above 1327 which was encouraging for the Bulls but pre-open today ES has followed European indices lower and currently prints below that level.
Effective Selling marked below 1327 would likely be a strong indication that control is shifting away from the Buyers.
Dayframe: Note that the 8dayVAL comes in close to the 1/2R off the May high around 1310 – if Buyers are still in control of the dayframe a probe down to this area of price “should” find them Responding.
1st Level S/R = 1327 (maj poc) (132.18 SPY)
2nd Level Support = 1310 (1/2R off May high) (131.68 SPY)
LT VAH = 1343 (134.80 SPY)
Sentiment: Increasing Bullishness (contrarian Bearish) was indicated last week (although not particulary in the options ratios). My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio surged higher – ending the week at 3.45, a 24day high. On Friday the net assets of the SPY ETF exceeded those reached at the Feb and May price highs. Market Vane (advisers) poll registered 62, the highest since w/e 05/13. Also, as previously noted, AAII (public) poll Bears% at 24.7 was the lowest in six months and the net (Bulls – Bears) at 17.1 was the highest since mid February.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Chart has printed a 30day low today and looks set to test the May low and the band of maj LT support between 1.3920 to 1.3965.
– Dollar Index: Has today printed above the 75.65 poc and above Resistance trendline off the Jan high. A move above 76.36 would be a breakout to a new 3month high – curently High today is 75.99.
? TLT: Chart spiked higher on Friday with equity weakness and higher today to possible test the 3yr_poc at 96.28. If Chart can print some time above that level it would be a bullish development.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
