posted 09.05 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 11th March
Friday closed above Mon-Wed range high which indicates Buyers Active on the weekly timeframe. I marked Significant Buying once last week and no Significant Selling. Higher prices have not yet attracted a markable Response from the Sellers. “Effective” Selling marked below 1517.50 would be the first indication of weakness on the Longer Timeframe. The last four Value Areas have all printed above the 1517.50 poc which is strong price location.
First Level Support = ES 1517.50 (3mn poc)
Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for all Major Market Charts.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 78%, Nasdaq 73%, UK 83%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers >80 usually considered overbought.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 3.51. The 45day low for this number is 3.49. Rydex retail traders have not embraced this new high like they did at February’s new high. This indicator usually peaks with the market but currently it is at 50% of its twelve month range. In the ST that is most likely supportive. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Weak below the 117.15 major poc. Momentum has turned down.
– Oil USO: two weeks ago broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is in a weak price location. Momentum (although negative) has turned up.
– Gold GLD: has shown weakness since it broke below 161.0, the major poc, three weeks ago. Has now printed its lowest level since July last year. Momentum (although negative) has turned up.
– Silver SLV: recently printed its lowest level since August last year. Momentum (although negative) has turned up.
– Dollar Index: In a strong price location above 81.35, the 1/2R off 2012 high.
– EURUSD: Still in a weak price location below the 1.3117 poc. On Friday printed its lowest level since early December.
Unsure about the bias these charts have for equities because momentum (price oscillator) has turned on a number of charts and Bonds (TLT) is in a weak price location.
