posted 8.16 a.m. et
Pre-open comment Monday 12th December
The Chartprofit Market Timing System is Mixed. Positive for Nyse Market Chart and Negative for Nasdaq and the UK.
Thursday’s red-at-bottom low (Significant Selling) was not tested on Friday. In fact Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked. A pattern of Aggressive Buying (or Selling) followed the next day by Aggressive Selling (or Buying) is a relatively rare pattern – we saw it in mid-November and as then I’ll attribute it to the uncertain/volatile nature of the current market.
Since 2nd Dec when ES reached the VAH of various timeframes we have seen consolidation as I suggested at that time we might. During this ranging period the 50day poc has remained at 1244 and this is still the most important level to monitor. More time spent at that level would most likely be a negative and certainly a daily Value Area printed below 1244 would indicate further weakness.
First Level Resistance = 1257 (minpoc) SPY = 126.14
overnight high has been 1256.50
First Level S/R = ES 1244 (50dy poc) SPY = 125.44
Second Level Support = ES 1214.50 (1/2R) SPY =122.30
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 2.50. The four month high for this ratio is 2.96. Also the options ratios have picked up with the OCC_calls%10dyma reaching a six month high last week.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). (Momentum = PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Still in a weak position below the 1.3635 poc and the 1/2R off June 2010 low. New 11day low today.
? Dollar Index: Still in a strong position above the 77.05 poc.
? TLT: currently holding above the 116.34 poc.
Bias for equities based on these Supporting Charts would be clearly negative imo if the Momentum indicator turned – which is looking like a good possibility.
