Pre-open Monday 12th July
Significant Buyers were active last week aggressively auctioning ES higher – to the frustration of those who cut longs or took short positions when the SP500 broke 1040. Friday closed near the high of the week.
Longframe: Long positions are eliminated for me – the CP Market Timing system stayed negative (red) for the tenth consecutive week. %Stocks>50dyma still below 50% for major indices.
Dayframe: My #1 rule is “never fade the last imbalance” and that was Buying so Short trades are now eliminated for me until Significant Sellers are marked again
1073 (3month poc) is First Level S/R. ES holding above this level would suggest ST strength.
LT Sentiment: In summary – there’s still enough Bears to suggest that the downside is limited, at least.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up very slightly at 0.88 from 0.87. These traders got very bearish when the SP500 broke 1040 late June and are being very slow to change their minds with the rally. That’s usually bullish (contrarian).
Supporting Charts (technicals based on daily Price Oscillator)
? USDJPY: Price Osc has been higher last two days after twelve consecutive days lower.
? EURUSD: higher low based on the 1.2133 major halfway level was confirmed by a breakout above the June high. Printed a new 8wk high last week. ST overbought though.
? UDX: below the important 85.14 poc and printed a new 8wk low last week. ST oversold.
? TLT/IEF uptrend still intact but technically overbought on the dailies with neg divergence
imo: these charts are mixed but improving for equities in the LT. ST is more difficult to gauge.
