posted 09.00 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Monday 12th May
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and Significant Selling once. Price activity was centred around 1872 and the 4mn poc migrated to this level. Breadth is not supportive, see below, but if ES can hold above 1872 it is in a strong price location. Thirty minutes pre-open ES prints 1880. Key Equity ETF chart is IWM, see below.
First Level Support = 1872.00 (4mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1849.50 (minor 1/2R)
Major Support = ES 1835.50 (maj poc)
Pre-open, SPY is printing above 187.73, the 7mn poc, IWM is printing below 111.48 (12mn poc), QQQ is printing above 86.32, the 8mn poc and DIA is printing above 163.40 (2yr poc) at a new high.
Breadth: The CP Market Timing System is now negative for all major Market Charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 50%, Nasdaq 24%, R2000 29%, UK 45%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.71. On 04/17 the ratio fell as low as 4.83, a 72day low.
Supporting Charts (+ or – shown as implied bias for equities)
– KEY Chart Financial Sector XLF: pre-open is printing below its maj 1/2R level (22.04).
– KEY Chart EURJPY: chart is printing below 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high.
– KEY Chart Bonds TLT: strong price location above 2year poc Support at 107.24. Momentum, although positive is down.
Dollar Index: rallied strongly back to the maj poc at 79.76, having tested last year’s low (78.92).
Gold GLD: still printing below 127.20, its 18mn poc in a LT weak price location.
Oil USO: printing below 37.31, the 1/2R off 2011 high but has stalled at the 36.11 Support (1/2R off 2013 high).
EURUSD: On Thursday printed its highest level since November 2011. This test above the March high was rejected though and the chart ended the week sharply lower.
