posted 9.19 a.m. et
pre-open comment Monday 13th August
See highlighted comments from Friday’s pre-open. Significant Buyers were marked twice on Friday following five days when Sellers did not Respond to the opportunity of higher prices. Friday Closed the week within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range so there was no Bias on this timeframe. ChartProfit Market Timing System turned positive for Nyse and turned neutral (from negative) for Nasdaq Market Chart. UK stayed positive.
Price location: Strong. All four major US index ETFs print above their 1/2R levels off 2012 high.
Dayframe: the 10dy poc comes in at 1395. If ES is ST strong this level will likely hold any decline at the start of this week but the 12month VAH at 1404 may currently be a difficult level to overcome. If that proves to be the case 1395 may be an attractive level for price rather than Support.
First Level LT Support = 1348 (6mn poc)
Second Level LT Support = 1334.50 (1/2R off March high) SPY=134.67
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.19. The ratio reached a 54 day high on 31st July but printed a 28 day low at 3.18 last week.
VIX hit a four month low on Friday at 14.74.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Key chart. A new two year low was printed late July. From that low point we have seen a rally and an exact 50% retracement of that rally which was Friday’s low at 1.2242. Holding above the 1/2R off a low is the first positive indication to look for and so far, so good. Hopefully the chart will hold that minor Support and rally this week. Would then look for chart to print time above the minor poc at 1.2496.
? Dollar Index: As mentioned in Friday’s webcast, the 5mn poc migrated to 82.83 last week. The chart currently prints below that price and this is weak price location if the chart cannot recover back above that level.
? TLT: As mentioned in Friday’s webcast, the 5mn poc migrated to 125.93 last week. The chart currently prints just below that price and this is weak price location if the chart cannot recover back above that level.
imo these charts have a slight positive bias for equities.
