Pre-open Monday 13th July
Friday generated the ninth consecutive Value Area below 2095.00, the 10mn poc. In the LT this is weak price location and I would want to see Significant Buying marked above this level before considering new longs, unless and until that poc migrates. At the start of last week I suggested that 2045.00 (as a former poc) may provide Support and subsequently we saw three rejected tests of that level with very little time spent below that point. We can assume that this is valid Support and time printed below 2045.00 would suggest further weakness.
Dayframe levels: The minor (24dy) poc migrated down to 2064.50. One hour pre-open ES is printing above this level. The 1/2R off May high is at 2080.25. This level has been probed today but one hour pre-open ES is printing below this level. Price relative to these levels at the start of this week will help determine ST strength/weakness.
LT Resistance = 2095.00. LT Support at 2045.00 (prev poc)
CP Market Charts: All major Market Charts are negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 35%, Nasdaq 43%, R2000 47%, UK 40%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 9.06 having fallen to 8.69 on Thursday which was an eight month low
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: on Friday TLT closed below 117.14, the maj poc which is weak price location. T-bond futures point to a lower open today for TLT.
Dollar Index: 96.76 is the 1/2R off March high and this is the obvious Resistance which was probed last week. Today the index prints below that level.
Gold GLD: in May a probe into the Resistance at 117.60, the 1/2R off the November low, was rejected. GLD remains in a weak location and last week printed close to this years low.
Oil USO: the 16mn poc recently migrated to 20.24. USO closed below that level for seven consecutive days and last week fell heavily. The 1/2R off the March low is at 18.55 and this is now Resistance.
EURUSD: is today printing below 1.1340, the 12mn poc.
