S&P 500 emini pre-open Monday 13th October
posted 08.40 a.m. est
Last week I marked Significant Selling four times and Significant Buying once. Early in the week there was a probe above the 1967 Resistance but this was rejected – this happened again pre-open Thursday. Post-open on Friday price was accepted around 1920, a level which had previously found Reactive Buying Support (see previous comments). Later in the day there was a new low with Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) being marked.
ES Second Level Resistance = 1967.00
ES First Level Resistance = 1949.00
ES Major Support = 1872.00
Breadth: All major Market Charts remained negative for the third week – see eBook.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 13%, Nasdaq 15%, R2000 15%. UK 11%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 7.37. The recent sell-off in the SPY is now more than 5% but the ratio has remained above 7. This is unusual and as a contrarian sentiment measure indicates that Rydex retail traders have not yet reached the level of fear usually associated with market lows.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT KEY Chart: printing above 117.15 (maj poc) in a strong price location and on Friday printed its highest level since May 2013.
Dollar Index: recently printed a four year high. Has corrected a little from there.
Gold GLD: Last week the chart tested the Jan 2014 and June 2013 lows and is currently holding this proven chart Support. Price below these lows would likely spark another round of selling.
Oil USO KEY Chart: The potential Support at 34.17 (1/2R off 2009 low) was broken last week and on Friday printed its lowest level since April 2013.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month chart broke below 1.3066 (3yr poc) and earlier in the month printed a two year low.
