Pre-open comment Monday 14th March
The Chartprofit Market Timing System is now negative for all major Market Charts except SP500 which is neutral. Nasdaq%Stocks>50dyma has fallen to 41% – this indicates further weakness (Nyse%Stocks>50dyma is holding just above 50).
Weekly structure: Last week saw Monday on the high and Friday on the low and although this wasn’t obviously Effective Selling on this timeframe (see webcast) this structure is typical of a weak market.
Based on the above caution is strongly advised. Before looking at long side now for positions I would want to see Market Timing System turn positive again. For trades I would want to see a minimum of ES back above 1318 poc and a marked improvement in the daily breadth numbers. Currently the support levels given in last week’s webcast for index ETFs have held but I would expect further weakness if those support levels are broken.
In the shorter timeframe (Profile analysis) I marked Significant Buying twice on Friday. This wasn’t Effective Buying (VA was overlapping).
Resistance = 1318.00
Support 1281.50 8dayVAL = 1300
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: In strong price location and rallied on Friday and today.
+ UDX: In weak price location and fell on Friday and today.
? TLT: printing close to the 6month poc at 91.82. Can it hold above?
imo these charts still show a slight positive bias for equities but analysis above is more important.
