posted 09.20 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 15th April
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice (Monday and Tuesday) and no Significant Selling. The last three days held higher prices which is encouraging but here are some negatives. The minor pattern of Support off previous day’s poc was broken on Friday; there is a negative divergence between higher prices and Price Osc, see SPY in eBook (this would be confirmed by Price Osc turning down; and Small Caps are lagging the Larger Cap indices – even so until Effective Selling is marked I will assume the Buyers are still in control of the dayframe.
Dayframe: IWM is worth watching. There is local Support at 92.69 which is the 1/2R off March high. It will be interesting to see if this level holds at the start of this week.
Breadth: Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for all US Major Market Charts and UK went back to positive from negative.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 64%, Nasdaq 55%, UK 63%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
First Level Resistance (minor) = ES 1582.50 (10dy poc)
First Level Support = ES 1548.50 (5month poc)
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher on Friday and ended the week at 4.60. The Recent high for the ratio was on 13th Feb at 5.22. 60day low was 3.49.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Earlier this month TLT printed a new high for the year but failed at the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. This Resistance has not yet been overcome.
– Oil USO: prints back below 34.17, the 1/2R and 3year poc. Has today fallen sharply and printed its lowest level since December.
– Gold GLD: I’ve been saying this is a weak chart since early February when it fell below its major poc. Fell steeply on Friday and again pre-open today to its lowest level for two yesrs.
– Silver SLV: Likewise this chart. Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January. Pre-open today is much lower and has printed its lowest level since October 2010.
+ Dollar Index: ST weak location printing below the 2month poc at 82.75. LT strong location above the 81.35 1/2R level. Momentum is negative and down.
? EURUSD: found Support at the Major poc at 1.2777 earlier this month and is now attempting to consolidate above the 24mn poc at 1.3070, which is stronger price location if it can hold this level.
imo these charts have a slight ST positive bias for equities.
