Pre-open Monday 15th November
Friday’s high was just below First Level Resistance (1210). The last three trading sessions have found resistance at, or below, the previous day’s poc. I marked Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) on Friday for the second time in a week. This is also the first time I can classify the Selling as Effective since early August – that is, active sellers generating a lower, wider Value Area.
First Level Support = 1197.5 (minor poc)
I am assuming lower especially if ES builds Value below that level.
and
First Level Resistance = 1210 (minor poc)
ES building Value above that level would have me questioning that view.
Important Support: 1178 poc
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down from 2.74 to 2.67.
LT sentiment: I’ve noted high levels of enthusiasm recently and the polls last week confirmed this. AAII (public) poll %Bulls came in at 57.56 which is the highest since 2007. Investor Intelligence (newsletters) poll nett (Bulls – Bears) came in at 25.3 which is the highest since early May and Market Vane recorded 59 which is the highest since January this year. It would be difficult to interpret these sentiment measures now as anything but toppy.
Supporting Charts –
– EURUSD: Most important chart to watch imo. On Friday chart printed its lowest level since late September. There has been little bounce today. Major 1/2R at 1.3965
– UDX: Another attempt today to rally above the late October highs which would look like breakout if successful. Last three sessions have printed above the 3month poc at 77.28.
? TLT: chart has confirmed lower high and lower low but reached support last week at the maj poc at 95.33.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
