posted 8.27 a.m. et
pre-open comment Monday 15th October
Last week I marked Significant Selling once and no Significant Buying (no Buying marked for eleven days). The 5month poc moved higher to 1435 (see Friday’s comments). I’m being cautious here if price remains below 1435. Friday closed below the low of Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range and indicates Sellers active on the weekly timeframe.
Breadth has deteriorated. The Chartprofit Market Timing Chart turned neutral for Nyse, turned negative for Nasdaq and stayed positive for UK.
Nasdaq%stocks>50dyma fell below 50. Nyse and UK held above. Bulls would want to see all these numbers above 50. Nasdaq is relatively weak as we have discussed.
First Level Resistance = 1435.00 (5mn poc)
First Level Support = 1397 (prev poc)
Key chart levels this week: continue to monitor the Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high) on following charts. Price location relative to these levels is currently weak.
QQQ = 70.13 (Fri Close 66.68). Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50 (Fri Close 3044.11). Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60 (Fri Close 2720.15).
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.25. The recent high at 5.51 on 09/18 conicided with the price peak.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Has so far held the Major poc Support at 1.2777 since the high in September. Bulls would want to see that level hold. Momentum turned back up on Friday.
? Dollar Index: Since the September low the chart rallied to 80.15 (the major level) and found Resistance there. This level was Resistance again last week. Momentum turned back down on Friday. Price above 80.15 or below 79.19 would be strong/weak price location.
? TLT: has been printing below the 125.93 (5mn poc) Resistance since early September. Price relative to the 1/2R off the September low at 121.64 is worth monitoring – chart Closed above that level on Friday. Momentum is still up.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
