pre-open comment Monday 17th June
Over the last seven days both Significant Buying and Selling has been marked (see chart) with recent price action oscillating around the 60day poc at 1628. First Level Resistance remains the 1/2R off May high at 1641 which was Resistance on Friday and again pre-open today. Until ES prints some time above that Resistance (preferably with Significant Buying being marked) I am not considering new long trades.
Breadth: CP Market Timing System turned neutral (from positive) for Nyse and R2000; remained positive for Nasdaq and turned negative for UK.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 52%, Nasdaq 61%, R2000 61%, UK 35%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
First Level Resistance = is the price area ES 1641 (minor 1/2R) to 1645 (24dy poc)
First Level Support = ES 1628 (60dy poc)
Sentiment: my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.22. Thursday’s ratio at 4.00 was a 32 day low and showed (at last) some bears emerging. Watching the ratio relative to its recent high which was 5.43 on 22nd May (May’s high day) and its recent low which was 3.27 on 25th April.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: In a weak price location below 117.15, the major poc. Last week chart printed its lowest level since April 2012.
Oil USO: Chart now prints above the 34.20 Resistance area. Momentum is up and positive.
Gold GLD: Fell steeply in April to its lowest level for two years and that level was approached again in May.
Silver SLV: Last week chart printed its lowest level since Oct 2010.
Dollar Index: Broke the Support at the 1/2R off 2009 high at 81.10. Next Support is the major poc at 80.15. Momentum is negative and down.
EURUSD: Last week printed its highest level since February and above 1.3228, the 1/2R off Feb high. Momentum is up and positive.
