Pre-open Monday 17th May
Last week I marked Significant Selling twice and Significant Buying once. The last imbalance was Selling (red) on Thursday and that eliminates the long side for me at least until Effective Buying is marked again. I have Sellers in control since close 27th April.
There was relative strength early in the week and relative strength late in the week. This is a typically a bearish weekly structure.
Longframe: I believe we could well be in a ranging mode for a while as the market adjusts and looks for value within the range set w/e 7th May. If that is the case then 1094 is likely to be an area of support. However if ES prints value below that level I would look for more downside and the possibility of a sharp break.
1/2R at 1136 (dotted) is now First Level S/R. Intraday support/resistance from this level would probably be a clue re ST strength/weakness.
Major Resistance at 1161.50
Major Support at 1094
ST sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was unchanged at 1.8. Sentiment indicators not very useful at the moment.
Supporting Charts (technicals based on daily Price Oscillator)
– USDJPY: down from the 93.60 1/2R resistance. Daily Momentum is down.
– EURUSD: a new 4 year low today; Daily Momentum down for 17 days
– UDX: a new 12 month high today currently printing above the daily chart resistance at 85.14; Price Osc up for 17 days.
– TLT & IEF: remain above major levels;
these charts are not supportive of equities
