Pre-open comment Monday 17th October
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice. There has been no Significant Selling marked for nine days. The Chartprofit Market Timing System turned neutral (from negative) for both the Nyse and Nasdaq Market Charts. A number of major charts are close to being technically overbought (14dyRSI>40UBB).
Dayframe: Pre-open, ES has probed down into 1st Level S/R at 1214.50 (1/2R off May high). If ES prints below this price for the first hour of today’s session then 2nd Level Support at 1189 will most likely be tested. Bulls would want to see 1214.50 supported – ES is in a strong price location above this level.
1st Level S/R = 1214.50 1/2R off May high (SPY 122.30)
2nd Level Support = 1189 (4month poc) (SPY 119.44 = 40dypoc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 1.73, the highest ratio since 08/17.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: Momentum (PriceOsc) has been higher for sixteen consecutive days and today has printed as high as 1.3905 – just below 1.3965, the major 1/2R off 2008 high.
? Dollar Index: Momentum has been lower for fourteen consecutive days and today has printed as low as 76.49, just above 76.27, the 1/2R Support off the May low.
? TLT: Momentum has been lower for seven consecutive days but chart is oversold (14dy RSY < 40LBB)
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities in the LT but unclear in the ST.
