posted 9.07 a.m. et
pre-open comment Monday 17th September
LT analysis remains positive. There is still concern re some of the Sentiment Indicators, particularly the Rydex Ratio and the VIX, but generally there was not a large increase in bullishness last week. Certainly not to the point yet where you could say investors were extremely optimistic (which would be contrarian bearish). Daily Technical oscillators like RSI are indicating that Index ETFs charts are overbought and if Effective Selling is marked it would suggest a corrective set-back at least but currently I still see Buyers in control. Even so, due to the Responsive selling on Friday, new long trades are eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again.
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and Significant Selling twice but on both occassions the Selling was ineffective; e.g. on Friday Responvive Selling was marked but the Value Area was higher.
First Level Support = 1435.00 (15dy poc)
Key chart levels this week:
Once again we will monitor Major 1/2R levels (off 2007 high) closely this week on the following charts:
QQQ = 70.13. Closed above this level on Friday but prints just below it today.
Nasdaq Comp Index = 3120.50. Closed well above this level on Friday.
Nasdaq 100 Index = 2805.60. Closed well above this level on Friday.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio closed the week at 4.48. The ratio reached 5.35 on 09/06 and I only have two readings higher than this in my database. These are 5.64 on 3rd April and 5.43 on 2nd May.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). UNCHANGED
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ KEY CHART EURUSD: Last week printed its highest level since May and is now printing well above the 1.2777 major poc.
+ KEY CHART Dollar Index: Last week printed its lowest level since early May and is now printing below the major level at 80.15.
+ TLT: Key Chart. Last week printed its lowest level since May. There is Major poc Support at 117.15.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
