posted 9.28 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Monday 18th July
Chartprofit Market Timing System turned back to negative for both Nyse and Nasdaq. The %Stocks>50dyma numbers ended the week for both these Market Charts very close to 50%. The major pocs for both ES and SPY migrated lower. See last Wednesday’s pre-open comments (bottom left on graphic).
These are negative developments in the LT but the good news (relatively) is that while the SPY chart broke Support last week the IWM and QQQ charts held Support – this to be discussed in the webcast. We get a clear indication of further weakness if these charts break Support.
Dayframe: Session high on Friday was the Resistance at 1315 (now a major level). The overnight high is just below today’s First Level S/R at 1310. Long Trades are eliminated for me (because last imbalance was Buying – green) and unless ES can print some time back above 1315 I will expect further weakness especially if IWM & QQQ break Support as described.
1st Level S/R = 1310 (1/2R off May high) (131.68 SPY)
Major Resistance = 1315 (maj poc) (131.95 SPY)
Sentiment: Indicators not as helpful as they were at the May high or the June low. e.g. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 3.14 which is about in the middle of its range of readings over the last six months.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: Currently print just above the band of maj LT support between 1.3920 to 1.3965.
? Dollar Index: Overnight the 75.65 poc has been probed three times.
+ TLT: Pre-open prints just below the 3yr_poc at 96.28.
imo these charts are currently mixed for equities but I likely to resolve this week and give a clearer indication for equities.
