posted 08.35 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 19th August
Early last week I marked Significant Buying twice but this was followed by Aggressive Selling on Wednesday and Friday and for the first time in many weeks Friday closed below Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range indicating Sellers active on the weekly timeframe. The weekly bar was lower and wider indicating this is Effective Selling on this timeframe and therefore Bulls need to be cautious here.
On Friday 9th Aug the 3mn poc migrated higher to 1686. ES currently prints below that level in a weak price location.
Momentum (PriceOsc) is now down for all four Stock Index ETFs and only holds above zero for QQQ. Please see charts in today’s eBook.
Breadth: The CP Market Timing System turned negative from neutral for Nyse, turned neutral from positive for Nasdaq and remained positive for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers fell sharply over the week for Nyse 52% (from 70%), Nasdaq 54% (from 66%), R2000 49% (from 65%). UK 70%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
1st Level Resistance = ES 1686.00 (3mn poc)
1st Level Support = ES 1627.00 (5mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.49. Mid-week it reached 4.07, a 40dy high. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: A minor rally w/e 08/09 found Resistance at the 4mn poc. Chart declined to a new low last week.
Oil USO: Currently prints above the maj poc at 37.93. Momentum is up and positive.
Gold GLD: Chart approaches Resistance at 34.17, the 12mn poc. Time spent above this level would put the chart in a much stronger price location.
Dollar Index: Currently in weak price location below the major poc at 82.73. Bulls would want to see price printing time back above that level. Momentum is negative but up.
EURUSD: As long as 1.3065 holds (9mn poc) the chart is in a strong price location however there is close 1/2R Resistance (off June 2010 low) at 1.3416.
