pre-open comment Monday 1st July
SPY closed on Friday within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range which indicates no bias on the weekly timeframe. Buyers have not been active on this timeframe for six weeks. ES found Support early last week at the 11mn poc at 1548. Price below this level would be very weak location.
All four maj stock index ETFs have seen Momentum (although negative) turn up.
ETF Resistance: SPY 162.40; DIA 150.14; QQQ 72.05; IWM 97.87
ETF Support: SPY 155.80; DIA 144.24; QQQ 68.62; IWM 93.62.
Resistance = ES 1616.75 (1/2R off may high)
Support = ES 1548 (11mn poc)
Breadth: CP Market Timing System remained negative for Nyse and R2000; turned back to positive (from neutral) for Nasdaq and remained negative for UK.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 41%, Nasdaq 58%, R2000 55%, UK32%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 2.68. Wednesday’s ratio at 2.62 was a multi-month low. From a contrarian perspective this is worth noting. The previous significant market correction ended mid November with the Ratio low at 2.57 at that point.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: Last week printed its lowest level since Sep 2011.
Oil USO: Ended the week printing at the 34.20 area of S/R. Momentum is positive but has turned down.
Gold GLD: Last week printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Silver SLV: Last week printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Dollar Index: Held major poc support at 80.15 in June and is now printing above the 12mn poc at 82.73. Momentum is up and positive.
EURUSD: Momentum is down and negative. Printing below the minor Support at 1.3081, 1/2R off April low. Next Support is the maj poc at 1.2777
