pre-open comment Monday 1st October
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and Significant Selling once. Friday closed within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range so there was no bias on this timeframe. The composite Value Area for the week as a whole was lower than the previous week so Buying activity last week was ineffective on the weekly timeframe. However, until I mark Effective Selling below the 1435 poc the Sellers activity can also be called ineffective. I said last week there was a struggle for control of the dayframe and, imo this continues to be the case. In the short-term Bulls would want to see ES printing back above 1446 (min 1/2R off September high) as soon as possible.
The Chartprofit Market Timing System turned neutral for Nyse and Nasdaq last week. The %Stocks>50dyma numbers remain above 50.
First Level Resistance = 1446 (min 1/2R off Sep high)
First Level Support = 1435.00 (25dy poc)
Key chart levels this week: monitoring Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high):
QQQ = 70.13. Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50. Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 4.93. The ratio reached 5.51 on 09/18 – I only have one ratio higher than this in my database (5.64 on 3rd April). This level of optimism from the Rydex traders usually indicates limited upside.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: low today at 1.2804. major poc Support at 1.2777. Bulls would want to see that level hold. Momentum is still down.
? Dollar Index: is printing between the major level at 80.15 and the 79.19 poc. Price above 80.15 or below 79.19 would be strong/weak strong price location.
? TLT: has been printing below the 125.93 (5mn poc) Resistance since early September. Price above that level would be a strong price location and a negative for equities. Momentum is up.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
