posted 9.28 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Monday 20th June
Last week I marked one instance of Significant Selling and no Significant Buying. The ChartProfit Market Timing System remained negative for all Major Market Charts. Weekly Structure showed no directional bias (previous week was an Effective Selling week). Long Trades eliminated for me. The minor (18day poc) migrated lower to 1265.50.
First sign of ST strength comes if ES can print some time back above the 1265.50 poc (SPY 127.50).
First Level S/R = 1265.50 (SPY = 127.50)
Second Level Resistance = 1282.50 (prev poc)
Sentiment numbers reached more bearish extremes indicating that a bounce at least is likely (see below). LT analysis remains negative.
LT Sentiment: Option ratios – Late last week the OCCcalls%_10dayma reached its lowest level since June 2010 and the ISEE (equity-only) index_10dayma reached its lowest level since August 2010.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week down at 2.05, the lowest level since November.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: 1.3920 to 1.3965 is a band of maj LT support with 1.450 min ST Resistance (1/2R off May high). Chart currently prints between these levels. Momentum (PriceOsc) is down.
? Dollar Index: Chart found resistance at the descending trendline off the major high in June 2010. Momentum (PriceOsc) is up.
? TLT: Has been oscillating around the 3yr poc at 96.28. Needs to break above the major 1/2R at 98.32 to confirm another leg up but chart is OB so this may be a problem.
imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to imply a ST bias for equities.
