posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Monday 21st March
Longframe: The Chartprofit Market Timing System is now negative for all major Market Charts. Both Nyse and Nasdaq %Stocks>50dayma numbers are well below the 50 level which is an indication of weakness. Monday high and Wednesday low of the week is neutral Weekly Structure but previous week was negative.
Last week I marked two instances of Significant Selling and one of Significant Buying. The Responsive Buying on Tuesday was clearly Ineffective but so far the Sellers have failed to significantly auction ES lower with Wednesday’s red-at-bottom low remaining untested. Even so, with the LT negatives stacking up I will assume this is Sellers Resting and not Buyers in control. If Effective Selling is marked below 1289.50 I will expect further weakness.
Dayframe: ES prints back above the 1281.50 poc which is ST positive but the 1/2R off February high at 1289.50 (June contract) is the most important level to monitor at the start of this week. ES printing value above this level would be a further indication of ST strength.
First Level S/R = 1289.50 1/2R from Feb high (129.98 SPY)
ST sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 2.15, its lowest level since early December.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Holding strong today. Potentially could test November’s high at 1.4282.
+ UDX: Weak position. Last week reached its lowest level since December 2009.
– TLT: Down a little from Wednesday’s three month high but holding above the 91.82 poc which is a stronger price location if it holds.
imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to infer a bias for equities.
