posted 09.21 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 22nd April
Friday closed within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range so no bias indicated on the weekly timeframe. The most recent imbalance is the Aggressive Selling marked last Monday so Long Trades are still eliminated for me until Significant Buying is marked again. ST Bulls would want to see ES holding and printing time above 1548.50, the 5mn poc. Price below that level is weak location. Index ETFs: Chart POC levels to watch at the start of this week are IWM 90.44 and SPY 155.80. Again, price below these levels is weak location.
Breadth: Chartprofit Market Timing System stayed positive for Nyse, turned neutral for Nasdaq and turned neutral for UK.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 43% Nasdaq 39%, UK 50% Not supportive.
Resistance (minor) = ES 1582.50 (10dy poc)
Potential Support or Resistance intraday = ES 1548.50 (5mn poc)
Support = ES 1517.50 (prev poc)
Re Value Area since early March: VAH=1558; VAL=1538 (dashed).
My Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 3.73 a 29day low. The 70day low for the ratio is 3.49.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? Bonds TLT: KEY CHART. Earlier this month TLT printed a new high for the year but failed at the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. Chart reached that level again last week but has not exceeded it.
– Oil USO: Last week printed its lowest level since June last year.
– Gold GLD: I’ve been saying this is a weak chart since early February when it fell below its major poc. Has fallen steeply this month to its lowest level for two years.
– Silver SLV: Likewise this chart. Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January and last week printed its lowest level since October 2010.
? Dollar Index: KEY CHART. LT strong location above the 81.35 1/2R level. Momentum is negative but up. Is today attempting to print above the 2month poc at 82.75.
? EURUSD: continues to print close to the 24mn poc at 1.3070 so difficult to gauge.
Watching particularly TLT and Dollar Index. Price location is not clear enough here to imply a bias for equities.
