posted 9.28 a.m. edt
Pre-open comment Monday 22nd August
Longframe: The Chartprofit MarketTiming System remains negative for all major Market Charts but the %Stocks>50dyma indicator for both Nyse and Nasdaq is still extremely low (below 10) deep in oversold territory.
Friday’s session generated an overlapping, wider Value Area but once again I did not mark Significant Sellers. On the higher timeframe, Weekly Structure showed Sellers Active (Friday closed below Mon-Wed range low) but Ineffective because last week’s composite VA was overlapping/higher than the previous week’s. However the most recent week that showed a directional bias was the Effective Selling w/e 08/05.
LT analysis remains negative.
Dayframe: The 10day poc is at 1134. Price printing back below that level would indicate further weakness. If that minor poc migrated higher it would be the first minor sign of strength in the ST.
First Level S/R = 1142 (1/2R off Aug low) (SPY = 115.73)
Major Support = 1094 (this is the MAJ LT poc) (SPY = 109.38)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down at 1.31, the lowest reading since Sep 2010. This is an extreme reading and would usually suggest that downside is limited, however, we would need to be very careful about making that assumption if 1094 is broken.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: prints above the band of maj LT support between 1.3920 to 1.3965 and currently, as I write, just above the 1/2R off May high at 1.44.
+ Dollar Index: Currently printing below the 74.96 poc.
– TLT: Currently printing above the major 1/2R off the 2008 high at 105.22.
imo it is difficult to imply a bias for equities in the ST.
