posted 9.26 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Monday 22nd November
As noted last week: on Tuesday (10/16) the 4month poc migrated higher to 1178. This is not necessarily bullish. It depends on subsequent price action relative to that poc. Effective Buying marked above 1178 would be a sign of strength confirmed by Value being printed above 1197.5 (see below).
Last week I marked no Significant Buying or Selling Imbalances. Support was found in the area of the 4month poc at 1178. Time spent below that level this week would indicate further weakness.
Longframe: All US Market Timing Charts remain positive (green). UK Market Chart (top 350 shares) stayed negative (red).
Dayframe: The poc of the minor distribution from high on Tuesday (10/09) migrated to 1197.50 on Friday. This is the 1/2way point of the range from that high and is therefor a doubly important level in the ST. Overnight ES has probed above that level but pre-open has been printing back down around 1194.
First Level S/R = 1197/98
Consolidation above that level would put ES in a stronger price location but that has not happened yet.
First Level Support = 1178 (4month poc)
European Futures traded higher early on, FTSE 100 future was up 68 points from Friday’s close but has subsequently sold off – now down 46 from Friday close.
LT Sentiment: Investors Intelligence (newsletters) poll had the highest %Bulls since 2007. That added contrarian weight to the Bear view.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio closed at its lowest for the week, down at 1.92. But the ISEE (equity-only) index came in at 208 with four out of five days last week closing above 200 which indicates lots of public Call buying relative to Put buying and is not ST bullish (contrarian).
Supporting Charts –
– EURUSD: Most important chart to watch imo. Last week the chart printed its lowest level since late September.
– UDX: Currently trying to consolidate a breakout above the mid/late October highs. Price Osc up for ten consecutive days.
? TLT: Trying to consolidate above the 95.33 poc and currently printed above previous eight daily highs.
imo these charts still have a negative bias for equities at the start of this week.
