posted 9.07 a.m. et
pre-open comment Monday 22nd October
The Chartprofit Market Timing Chart is positive for Nyse; negative for Nasdaq and positive for UK.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 56, Nasdaq 36, UK 72. Bulls would want to see all these numbers above 50. Nasdaq is relatively weak as we have discussed.
Last week the Large Caps (SPY +0.35%) outperformed the Small Cap (IWM -0.32%)and Tech (XLK -2.1%). It is usually more constructive for the market if Small Cap and Tech are outperforming.
On Friday I marked Aggressive Selling below the 1435poc. Following the test of the current VAH on Wed/Thu at 1452 (dashed) ES tested the VAL on Friday; this level is now 1424 (dashed). The 1435 poc is now First Level Resistance and following the red-at-bottom low on Friday, Long Trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again and at current levels this would need to be above 1435. If ES is printing below 1435 it is in a weak price location. Bulls would want to see ES back above that level asap.
Second Level Resistance = 1442.25 (1/2R off Sep high)
First Level Resistance = 1435.00 (5mn poc)
First Level Support = 1397 maj poc
Key chart levels this week: I continue to monitor the Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high) on following charts. Price location relative to these levels is currently weak.
QQQ = 70.13 (Fri Close 65.68). Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50 (Fri Close 3005.62). Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60 (Fri Close 2678.32).
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.33, a 49day low.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Has reached the 2yrPoc Resistance at 1.3117. Momentum is up and if that Resistance is overcome then the September high at 1.3172 could also be challenged.
? Dollar Index: Has recovered back above the 79.19 poc. Time spent below that level would indicate further weakness.
+ TLT: pre-open prints below 121.64, the 1/2R off the September low. Momentum turned down last week and a 23day low was printed on Thursday.
imo determining a bias for equities from these charts is currently difficult. EURUSD printing time above 1.3117 and Dollar Index printing time below 79.19 would be supportive for equities.
