Pre-open comment Monday 23rd February
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice. Significant Sellers have not been marked for sixteen days. See Friday’s pre-open comments. ES briefly tested the minor VAL at 2087.00 early in Friday’s session and quickly auctioned higher. The minor (10dy) poc moved to 2094.0 and this is now the minor Time Support. Only Significant Selling marked below 2033.50 would be the first sign of weakness for the LT trend.
First Level Support = 2033.50 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 200.11 (8mn poc)
All four major stock index ETFs have positive and increasing Price Momentum (PriceOsc).
Breadth: CP Market Timing System is positive for all major Market Charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 70%, Nasdaq 66%, R2000 63%, UK 83%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 11.45. In early December the ratio reached 13.73, the highest in the database.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: reached a new high at the end of January but lower this month. Momentum (PriceOsc) is now negative and chart printed a 32day low last week.
Dollar Index: on 01/23 printed its highest level since 2003. In recent webcasts I have talked about the possibility of a turn here for the dollar. Watching levels on EURUSD (below) and AUDUSD in particular.
Gold GLD: since probing the Resistance at 124.12 (major poc) three weeks ago, GLD has given back nearly all of last month’s strong gains and printed a 30day low last week.
Oil USO: on 12/12 broke below the extreme low of Feb 2009 and fell sharply. Has rallied this month.
EURUSD: has been declining since May last year and has reached major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Has held above that level this month but prints close to that level.
