posted 9.00 a.m. e.t.
pre-open comment Monday 24th September
The LT analysis remains postive, ST analysis is neutral with Sellers vying for control of the dayframe.
The Chartprofit Market Timing System is positive for all Market Charts and the %Stocks>50dyma numbers are well above 50.
Last week I marked Significant Selling twice and no Significant Buying. Sellers are active but their activity cannot yet be called Effective (weekly Value Area was higher). Even so, as I wrote pre-open a week ago, new long trades are eliminated for me at least until Significant Buyers are marked again.
First Level Support = 1435.00 (20dy poc)
Key chart levels this week: monitoring Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high):
QQQ = 70.13. Closed almost at this level on Friday.
Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50. Closed above this level on Fri.
Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60. Closed above this level on Fri.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio closed the week at 4.87 but Tuesday’s ratio was 5.51 and and I only have one ratio higher than this in my database (5.64 on 3rd April). This level of optimism from the Rydex traders usually indicates limited upside.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). UNCHANGED
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: The major poc remains at 1.2777 but the 12mnth poc migrated to 1.3117. As the chart currently prints back below this level, 1.3117 is now Resistance of some importance. Chart printing time above 1.3117 would be strong price location. Momentum has turned down.
? Dollar Index: The major level is still 80.15 but the 24mn poc has migrated to 79.19. This gives us an excellent reference level. Currently chart prints above 79.19 but should price print below that level it would be in a weak location.
? TLT: TLT is oversold and printing above Major poc Support at 117.15. Until that level is broken I cannot assume further weakness.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
