posted 07.12 a.m. edt
Pre-open comment Monday 27th June
Last week I marked two instances of both Significant Buying and Significant Selling. The ChartProfit Market Timing System remained negative for all Major Market Charts. Weekly Structure showed no directional bias.
Longframe: The LT analysis remains negative but Sentiment numbers are still suggesting a bounce. This may explain why ES has been ranging for nearly three weeks. Caution is still advised. A Value Area printed above 1280.50 or below 1265.50 will most likely determine directional bias at least in the ST.
Dayframe: Friday found Responsive Sellers early in the session just below the 1st Level S/R at 1280.50. This is the 30day poc. ES printing some time above this level would be the first sign of strength.
1st Level S/R = 1280.50 (poc)
2nd Level Support = 1265.50 (poc)
2nd Level Resistance = 1310 (1/2R off May high, Sep contract)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 2.32. Last Tuesday’s ratio at 1.82 was the lowest level since October.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: Chart failed last week just below the 1.450 min ST Resistance (1/2R off May high). Momentum (PriceOsc) is down. 1.3920 to 1.3965 is a band of maj LT support.
? Dollar Index: Chart currently finding it difficult to print above the 75.65 poc. Momentum (PriceOsc) is up.
? TLT: Last week chart printed its highest level since November. Has been oscillating around the 3yr poc at 96.28. Needs to break above the major 1/2R at 98.32 to confirm another leg up.
imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to imply a ST bias for equities.
