Pre-open Monday 27th September
On Thursday and Friday ES found support at First Level S/R (see previous comments below). It’s usually a good sign when expected support proves itself day to day. Once again Friday was the high day of the week and that is a positive sign as well. Although the market was already technically overbought at the start of last week ES managed to consolidate a higher range than the previous week and found support at the obvious level.
Dayframe: At the start of this week the First Level S/R is the 8day poc at 1132
More important Support remains at 1117 (2month poc).
Sentiment: Rydex Timers have been slow to embrace this rally. On Friday, which was a good day for the market, my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down again from 1.61 to 1.56.
My hunch is that if we see another drive higher there will be capitulation from the Rydex Bears. That would be interesting especially if it coincides with the early October time pivot.
Supporting Charts
– USDJPY: 1/2R off the September low is 84.41 and that is the high today. Still in a weak position.
+ EURUSD: new five month high today.
+ UDX: major support at 80.15 was broken on Wednesday. Very important chart. If chart cannot recover back above 80.15 it is in a very weak price location.
+ TLT: appears to be consolidating below the major 1/2R level resistance at 105.22
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
