posted 08.48 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 29th April
Last week saw an improvement in price location with ES and the four major index ETFs ending the week above their 1/2R levels off recent high. We monitor these 1/2R levels as follows: SPY 156.62; DIA 146.51; IWM 92.04; QQQ 68.52. The most recent imbalance is the Signifcant Buying marked last Monday so new short trades have been eliminated for me since the Open on Tuesday. Dayframe: 15day poc moved to 1576. May provide intraday Support or Resistance at the start of this week.
Breadth: Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for Nyse; turned positive from neutral for Nasdaq and stayed neutral for UK.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 56% Nasdaq 51% R2K 48%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
First Level Support = ES 1562 (1/2R off recent high)
Second Level Support = ES 1548.50 (5mn poc)
Rydex Assets Ratio: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 3.59. Thursday’s ratio at 3.59 wa the lowest since 4th Jan.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: KEY CHART. Has stalled at the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. If chart can print time above this level it would be stronger price location. Momentum is positive but down.
? Oil USO: Attempting to print above the Resistance at 33.10 (1/2R off last year’s low). Momentum is negative but up.
? Gold GLD: Has fallen steeply this month to its lowest level for two years. Momentum is negative but has turned up.
– Silver SLV: Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January and this month has printed its lowest level since October 2010. Momentum is negative but has turned up.
? Dollar Index: KEY CHART. Currently ranging and volatile. Is currently printing below the 2month poc at 82.75. LT strong location if it holds above the 81.35 1/2R level. Momentum is negative but up.
? EURUSD: Currently printing just above the 24mn poc at 1.3070. Momentum is positive but down.
Watching particularly TLT and Dollar Index. Charts are mixed but I would say they imply a slight positive bias for equities.
