posted 08.47 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 29th July
Last week I marked Significant Selling twice and Significant Buying once. On Friday I marked Aggressive Buying (green-at-top). The Value Area was overlapping/lower so this was not Effective Buying and therefore not convincing (possibly short covering) but never-the-less my #1 Rule tells me that new short trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Selling is marked again. In the ST as long as ES holds above the 30day poc at 1677 it remains in a strong price location. In the LT as long as ES holds above the 4month poc at 1645 it remains in a strong price location. Friday closed within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range indicating no bias but Buyers were marked as active on this timeframe over the previous three weeks.
1st Level LT Support = ES 1677.00 (30dy poc)
2nd Level LT Support = ES 1645.00 (4mn poc)
Breadth: The CP Market Timing System remained positive for all Major Market Charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 75%, Nasdaq 74%, R2000 79%, UK 75%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.25. On 07/10 the ratio reached 2.15 which was the lowest ratio since January 2012 and indicated real fear from the retail trader.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: w/e 07/05 chart printed 107.16, its lowest level since Sep 2011. TLT closed on Friday at 108.14. Momentum is negative and down. Still a weak looking chart.
Oil USO: Bulls would want to see chart hold 37.31, 1/2R off 2011 high, and Momentum turn back up.
Gold GLD: printed a 5week high last week. Momentum is positive and up. The low on 06/28 was the lowest since Aug 2010.
Silver SLV: Momentum is positive but turned down on Friday. w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Dollar Index: On 07/09 printed its highest level since July 2010 but declined sharply from there and is now printing below 82.73, the 12mn poc which is weaker price location. Momentum is negative. Dollar Bulls would want to see Momentum turn back and price above 82.73.
EURUSD: Has rallied sharply since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 on 07/09 and today has printed a 25day high. As long as 1.3065 holds (the 9mn poc) the chart is in a strong price location. Momentum is positive and up.
