Pre-open comment Monday 29th November
The only imbalance I only marked last week was the Significant Selling (red-at-bottom) on Friday although this was in a shortened session on very light volume. The Buyers had been given opportunity to appear for eight sessions following the Effective Selling marked on 12th November but have not been marked since that date. This usually gives confidence to the Sellers and I assume they are still in control of the dayframe.
Longframe: ChartProfit Market Timing Charts are mixed. NewYork turned neutral. Nasdaq (and R2000) stayed positive. SP500 turned negative. UK stayed negative.
First Level Resistance = 1195 (16day poc)
First Level Support = 1178 (4month poc)
If ES prints time below this support it will indicate further weakness.
Dayframe: Long trades still eliminated for me (most recent imbalance was red). That would change if Effective Buying is marked above 1195.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 2.1. The ISEE (equity only) index closed at 209 – six out of seven days have been above 200 which shows lots of public Bulls realtive to Bears. The OEXcall% 10day ma again fell to a new 6month low (often considered a smart-money indicator).
Supporting Charts –
– EURUSD: important chart. Printed a new 45day low today. Price Osc down for fifteen consecutive days.
– UDX: also an important chart. Printed a new 45dy high today. Price Osc up for fifteen consecutive days. 80.15 is a major 1/2R – chart currently prints above this level. Big question – can Dollar Index consolidate above this level?
– TLT: Has been consolidating above the 95.33 poc for last eight days.
imo these charts still have a negative bias for equities.
