Pre-open comment Monday 29th September
See previous, highlighted, comments. Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and Significant Selling twice (on Wednesday). Wednesday was was an Ineffective Buying day (overlapping Value Area) and made its high at the (then) minor 1/2R (weak ST pattern). On Thursday ES broke below the level that had previously attracted Reactive Buyers. I would want to see price location and breadth data improve before considering the long side. There is Support at ES 1949.
Key Charts/Levels: Pre-open today IWM is printing below 111.64 (2yr poc) and DIA prints below 170.38 (now 18mn poc). Other Key Charts are TLT and USO, see below.
ES First Level Resistance = 1998.50 (50dy)
ES First Level Support = 1949.00 (4mn)
ES Major Support = 1872
Breadth: CP Market Timing System is negative for all Major Market Charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 28%, Nasdaq 32%, R2000 27%, UK 39%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 8.17. The highest ratio in the database is 10.47 On 07/29.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT KEY Chart: recently held the Support at 112.27, the 12mn poc, and rallied. Pre-open today is sharply higher and probing the important Resistance at 117.15 (maj poc).
Dollar Index: Last week printed a new four year high.
Gold GLD: Recently found resistance at 124.15, the 30mn poc and fell sharply. Last week printed its lowest level since early January.
Oil USO KEY Chart: Has sold-off since mid June, down to the Support at 34.17 (1/2R off 2009 low) which is Key. Possibilty of a turn here but price printing time below this level would be very weak location and suggest lower.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month chart broke below 1.3066 (3yr poc) and has today printed its lowest level since November 2012. 1.3066 is now Resistance.
