pre-open comment Monday 2nd July
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and no Significant Selling. Friday closed well above the high of Mon-Wed Range which is Buyers Active on this timeframe. The LT analysis is now much more positive, confirming the ST analysis. The concern is the big gaps left on the Index ETF charts due Friday’s much higher Open. Previous poc level at 1366 comes back into play as First Level Resistance.
The %Stocks>50dyma numbers for all Major Market Charts are now printing above 50 which is supportive. The Chartprofit Market Timing System turned positive for Nyse, turned neutral from negative for Nasdaq and remained neutral for UK. The Breadth data is much improved.
Regarding the 1/2R (off this year’s highs): the eBook shows these Key levels for all major charts. It may well be the case that the four major US index ETFs Open the week above their 1/2R in which case these will now be important Support levels to monitor.
First Level Resistance = 1366 (poc) 137.30 (SPY)
First Level Support = 1334.50 (1/2R) SPY = 134.67
Major Support = 1307 (maj poc) SPY = 131.93
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 3.12. On 5th June the ratio reached 2.25 which was a four month low coinciding with the recent market low.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Prints above the minor poc at 1.2496 (First Level Support) and below the maj poc at 1.2777 (Resistance).
? Dollar Index: prints above the Major Support at 80.15 but in an ST weak price location below 82.36, the 1/2R off June high.
+ TLT: Prints below the Minor 1/2R off June high at 127.23 which is ST weak price location. Chart sharply lower on Friday.
imo these charts now imply a slight positive bias for equities.
