Pre-open comment Monday 3rd October
Chartprofit Market Timing system was negative for the eleventh consecutive week. Weekly Structure also suggests further weakness. Last week I marked two instances of Significant Selling and one of Significant Buying.
On Friday a brief probe above 1st Level Resistance at 1147 was rejected. Aggressive Selling was marked later in the session with ES closing near the low. Enough time was spent at 1132 for the 40dy poc to migrate lower and, as mentioned pre-open Friday, this is most likely a bearish development especially if ES cannot print convincingly back above this level.
1st Level Resistance = 1132 (40dypoc)
Resistance = 1147 (1/2R off Aug low) (SPY = 114.85poc)
Major Support ES = 1094 (Maj Poc) (109.17 SPY)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 1.26. The recent extreme low for this indicator was 1.10 on 22nd Aug.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Broke Major Support in early September and today is printing below 1.3416 (1/2R Support off June 2010 low).
– Dollar Index: today has printed highest level since January.
? TLT: recently tested the Dec 2008 high. The initial rejection at this level has not been extended.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
