posted 07.52 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 4th November
Significant Selling was marked on Wednesday following fifteen days of Active Buying where no Selling was marked. In the longer timeframe this Selling can be classified as Responsive because it occured above the minor 25dy poc at 1737.50. That poc may migrate which may provide a clue re ST direction – 1757 would be interesting and most likely bullish. Minor concerns are the fact that Momentum, although positive, has turned down for the four stock index ETFs and there was quite an increase in bullish sentiment last week, see other indicators in eBook.
First Level Support = 1737.50 (minor 25dy poc)
Second Level LT Support = = 1685.50 poc
Friday closed within the Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range indicating no bias on the weekly timeframe. Previous three weeks had indicated Buyers Active.
Breadth: The CP Market Timing System turned neutral (from positive) for Nyse and Nasdaq; turned negative (from positive) for R2000 and UK Market Chart stayed positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 71%, Nasdaq 60%, R2000 63%, UK 76%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.98, a five month high. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: ended the week below 107.18, the 8mn poc in a weaker price location. Momentum (although positive) turned down.
Gold GLD: Sold off last week to the Support at 126.11, 1/2R off June low and remains below 134.17, the 12mn poc, in a weak price location.
Oil USO: On Friday reached its lowest level since June and tested the Support Band at 34.17 = 1/2R off 2009 low and 34.13 = 3yr poc. Price below here is weaker location still.
Dollar Index: Strong finish to the week put chart back in a stronger price location above the important level at 80.15.
EURUSD: The negative divergence between the higher price high in October and the lower Momentum high was triggered when Momentum (PriceOcs) turned down on Wednesday. Sharp sell off to the end of the week with Support a little lower at 1.3416, the 1/2R off 2010 low.
