posted 9.28 a.m. est
Pre-open Monday 4th October
Friday printed yet another Value Area in the 1136-43 region. Last week Buyers Responded below this range (green-at-bottom) and Sellers Responded above (red-at-top). More reliable would be a Break out of this range with accompanying Effective Buying or Selling being marked.
Even though Sentiment readings are not typical of a termination move (see below) if ES breaks higher early this week and snaps back (or breaks lower with Effective Selling) be aware that early this week and late last week is/was a time pivot and therefore a high-potential turning point.
All of last week’s price action (plus the previous Friday) printed above the 5month VAH at 1126. That’s a good performance and indicates higher if ES can hold above 1139 (the 7week poc) early in the week.
First Level S/R at the start of this week stays at 1139 (7week poc).
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down from 1.82 (the highest level since Aug 10th) to 1.58 on Friday. This was a little surprising as was the AAII data which showed less Bulls and more Bears.
Supporting Charts
– USDJPY: Weak position
+ EURUSD: New six month high today but very overbought.
+ UDX: New eight month low today.
+ TLT: currently printing back below the major 1/2R level resistance at 105.22
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
