Pre-open Monday 5th October
Last week I marked two instances of Significant Selling and one of Significant Buying.
On Friday Buyers Responded early in the session but the Value Area was overlapping/lower so this is Ineffective Buying.
Note that the last two weeks have seen relative strength early in the week and relative weakness at the end of the week; this is bearish structure. It is usually wise to assume the weekly structure pattern will repeat. It is therfore my assumption that Sellers will most likely respond and sell into any early strength this week. 2dyVAH (the high of the Value Area of 2 days price distribution) comes in around 1030. If ES down auction is set to resume quickly any price probe above that level might well attract a Selling Response – the first obvious resistance above that is Thursday’s controlling price at 1033 (red line).
Effective Buying above First Level S/R at 1024 would suggest more strength from the Buyers than I am expecting and I would want to see that before considering the long side.
