posted 9.23 a.m. est
Pre-open Monday 7th June
Longframe: The CP Market Timing System was negative for the fifth consecutive week. Note that Friday’s weak close meant that last week’s structure was back to the bearish pattern of relative weakness at the end of the week.
Dayframe: On Friday I marked Significant Selling (red-at-bottom). This was also Effective Selling (lower, wider Value Area on expanding Volume). Sellers in control of the dayframe since close on 27th April.
The Cumulative Value Area of the current range (12 days) is now HVal=1100, LVal=1070 (grey area on chart).
First Level Resistance at 1082
Second Level Resistance at 1094
No longs for me below 1094. I will be extremely cautious especially with EURUSD printing below major support.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up from 1.3 to 1.5 on Friday.
AAII (public) poll reported Bears at 40.8% last week (down from 50.9% which was the highest number since the November 09 low) and Bulls at 37.1% (up from 29.8%). There’s still enough Bears to suggest that downside is limited (contrarian) but generally less Bears than the previous week.
Supporting Charts (technicals based on daily Price Oscillator)
+ USDJPY: prints above the poc which migrated up slightly to 90.21. Price Osc up for six days
– EURUSD: new four year low on Friday and prints below major supprt.
– UDX: currently printing above the daily chart resistance at 87.84. If UDX can hold above this level it is in a very strong position.
– TLT was sharply higher on Friday following support at the 95.22 poc on Thursday.
imo these charts are bearish for equities at the moment.
