pre-open comment Monday 8th April
ES was auctioned back up to First Level Resistance at 1549 through Friday’s session but even so the Value Area was lower and wider. The most recent imbalance was Wednesday’s Aggressive Selling so before considering the long side I need to see Buyers marked again and preferably above 1548.50 which is now the 5month poc. This level could be intraday Support or Resistance at the start of this week and that could be a clue re ST direction.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 53%, Nasdaq 48%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
First Level S/R = ES 1548.50 (5month poc)
Support = ES 1517.50 (min poc)
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 3.94. The 60day low for this number is 3.49. Recent high for the ratio was on 13th Feb at 5.22.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
– Bonds TLT: On Friday printed a new high for the year to date and probed the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. This Resistance has not yet been overcome. Momentum is positive and up.
– Oil USO: prints back below 34.17, the 1/2R and 3year poc. Momentum (although positive) is down.
– Gold GLD: Last week printed its lowest level since the May low last year. Momentum is now negative and down.
– Silver SLV: Still in a weak price location printing below 27.87, the 12mn poc and last week printed its lowest level since last July.
? Dollar Index: very volatile; now printing back below the 2month poc at 82.75. Momentum (although positive) is down.
? EURUSD: appears to have found Support at the Major poc at 1.2777. Price below that level would be extremely weak price location. The positive divergence between PriceOsc and Price was confirmed last week by the indicator turning up (although still negative).
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
