posted 9.20 a.m. est
Pre-open Monday 8th February
Last week I marked one instance of Significant Buying and one instance of Significant Selling.
The low on Friday was 1040.75 which emphasises the importance of the 1094 poc. 1094 is now also the centre of the range from the high on 11th Jan. This level should be considered the most important resistance level and for now I require Effective Buying to be marked above that level before considering the long side. I say “for now” because the poc could migrate lower which would change things. My hunch is that 1064 will become an attractive level for price as it was in Sep/Oct last year.
ST sentiment indicators: On Friday my version of the Rydex Assets ratio fell from 1.6 to 1.56. That’s a 30 day low and shows an increase in fear but nothing like panic. Although the Rydex Bear fund assets I follow were UP more than 10% on Friday which would be typical at a low day, the Bull fund assets were also up more than 10% which is unusual for a low day. I looked back over nearly four years of data and found no low day of any significance at all where Bull fund assets were up more than 10% on that day.
The VIX spiked up to 29.22 intraday which is a three month high and a typical event at a low day – although when the market reached its corrective lows back in July and November VIX spiked well above 30 on both occassions which it has not done here yet.
